Cairns Economic Monitor - December 2025
The December edition of the Cairns Economic Monitor has landed, and it arrives with a dose of reality for anyone hoping for a festive rate cut.
October inflation came in at 3.8%, abruptly cooling those Christmas wishes. The RBA has been clear: it wants unmistakable proof that inflation is easing, and the latest numbers aren’t doing it any favours.
While the monthly CPI series has been around since 2022, it is now a key driver of interest rate expectations, giving us faster insight into economic momentum. That makes 10 December a pivotal date, with the next CPI release dropping just days before the 17 December RBA meeting. A softer reading would certainly boost confidence, but at this stage, a rate cut before year-end would feel like nothing short of a Christmas miracle.